CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z MON 27/10 - 06Z TUE 28/10 2003
ISSUED: 26/10 22:37Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

General thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Mediterranean region.

SYNOPSIS

A meandering westerly flow is present over the Mediterranean region, where a north-south oriented baroclinic zone is present. A small vorticity maximum is located over the northern Adiatic at the beginning of the forecast period is rapidly moving eastward. A closed upper low to the northwest of Portugal is slowly moving southward. A WSW-ENE oriented trough is located from northern Belarus to southern Germany. This trough is moving southeastward to be located just from the Volga plateau to the western Black Sea. A strong westerly jet moves into Scandinavia. At the end of the period an embedded trough is expected to approach the British Isles.

DISCUSSION

...Coastal areas of the western Balkans from central Croatia southward....
Storms are expected to affect the southern Adriatic and the western Balkan coastal areas from central Croatia southward. South of a surface cyclone moving eastward from Croatia to the northern Balkans quite strong low-level winds are expected to form. 35-50 knots may be possible at 850 hPa. Although instability will be very marginal, there may be some strong gusts locally as downdrafts transport this horizontal momentum to the surface. Some gusts may be marginally severe (above 50 kt).

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